Despite a significant jump in pump prices, Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption rose by 10.78% in April 2026, reaching 52.4 million litres per day.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) reveals that this demand surge occurred even as average petrol prices climbed to N1,370 per litre, a 13.8% increase from March’s average of N1,180.
This trend suggests a resilient domestic demand for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) regardless of the mounting inflationary pressure on consumers.
The supply landscape is undergoing a radical transformation, fueled by the Dangote Refinery, which hit a remarkable 99.12% capacity utilization in April.
Supply from the facility jumped 19% to 40.7 million litres per day, effectively displacing foreign fuel. Consequently, petrol imports plummeted by 37.3%, while the reliance on imported crude oil for local refining nearly vanished, dropping by 95.65%.
This shift was supported by a 56% increase in crude oil supply from domestic upstream companies to local refineries, totaling 17.99 million barrels.
While the downstream sector showed signs of stabilization through local refining, the upstream sector continued to struggle with international benchmarks.
Nigeria’s total crude oil output, including condensates, rose marginally to 1.663 million barrels per day (bpd) in April.
However, the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) noted that actual crude oil production averaged only 1.4 million bpd, leaving the country short of its 1.5 million bpd OPEC quota.
This production deficit poses a challenge for the Federal Government’s fiscal goals. Current output remains well below the 1.84 million bpd benchmark set for the 2026 budget.
Although industry operators are aggressively pushing to reach a 2 million bpd target to bolster foreign exchange earnings and stabilize the economy, the latest figures underscore a persistent gap between national aspirations and the reality of current oil field productivity.
