The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Nigeria’s economic growth forecast for 2026 to 4.1 percent, citing the impact of global energy and supply disruptions linked to the ongoing Middle East conflict.
The revision was announced during the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., where officials warned that rising fuel costs, shipping expenses, and supply chain pressures are weakening economic recovery across Sub-Saharan Africa.
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the downgrade reflects broader challenges facing energy-importing economies, noting increased inflation and slower growth across the region.
According to the IMF, higher global prices for fuel and fertilizers, alongside rising shipping costs, are expected to weigh on Nigeria’s non-oil sector. Denz Igan added that while higher oil prices may provide some support, overall growth prospects remain weaker for 2026, with recovery projected in 2027.
The Fund also projected that median inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa will rise from 3.4 percent in 2025 to 5 percent in 2026, driven by energy costs and supply constraints.
For Nigeria, the IMF stressed the need for sustained tight monetary policy to meet inflation targets set by the Central Bank of Nigeria.
Additionally, the IMF noted that bilateral aid to Sub-Saharan Africa declined by up to 20 percent in 2025, reducing financial buffers at a time of rising global economic pressures.
